In our base-case scenario, continued spread within established complexes, as well as community transmission in new complexes, drives a reduction in global GDP growth for 2020. China, meanwhile, continues on its path to recovery. However, there is a growth in cases and it is likely that movement restrictions will be imposed to try to slow or stop the progression of the disease. This will almost certainly drive a sharp reduction in demand, which in turn lowers economic growth.
Each sector will be affected to different degrees. Some sectors, for instance, tourism/ hospitality will see lost demand. and this demand is mostly irrecoverable. Other sectors could see delayed demand. The pessimistic scenario assumes that cases continue to grow and would see a significant impact on the economy, resulting in a global recession. - Peter M. & Veronica F.